On 16 December 2024, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, confirmed that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) would publish its updated Economic and Fiscal Outlook on 26 March 2025.
Alongside this, the Chancellor is expected to deliver a statement to Parliament. The Government have named this event the “Spring Forecast”.
The forecast is expected to differ from traditional “fiscal statements”, which in recent times have happened bi-annually; with one in the Spring, and the other in the Autumn.
As this Government has committed to holding just one major fiscal event a year, in the Autumn, they are only planning to deliver a “forecast” – rather than a “statement” – in the Spring.
With pressures on the Government’s fiscal rules mounting, and with the Government’s commitment to the “Spring Forecast” being a non-fiscal event, there are several questions to consider:
- What will the “Spring Forecast” look like?
- Is it noteworthy?
- Will the Government make fiscal adjustments to address the mounting pressures?
This explainer will provide historical context on fiscal events, demystify the 2025 “Spring Forecast”, and set out the path ahead for the Government.
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Image source: Rachel Reeves on X