Introduction
Germany headed to the polls on Sunday, February 23, 2025, following the dramatic collapse of the traffic light coalition government in November 2024, marking a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape. Tensions over national spending, Ukraine aid and climate policies eventually triggered the fall-out, leading to the dismissal of former Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner (FDP) and the resignation of key FDP ministers. Scholz’s SPD and the Greens continued to govern as a minority. This election came at a crucial point not only for Germany’s political stability and economic direction but also for Europe as a whole, as Germany’s role as an anchor of EU fiscal discipline and a strong supporter for Ukraine could be reshaped amid rising global uncertainty.
Election Results Summary
With a voter turnout of approximately 83 percent, this election saw the highest participation since Germany’s reunification. The CDU/CSU emerged as the strongest party, securing 28.52 percent of the vote. After their worst election result in history in 2021, they successfully capitalised on the former government’s collapse to regain momentum. The clear winner of this election, however, is the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which came in second and almost doubled its 2021 vote share, securing 20.8 percent. Scholz’s SPD suffered the biggest setback of the election, receiving only 16.41 percent of votes. This marks the worst election result in the history of the party. The Greens followed with 11.61 percent. The Left Party, previously presumed to be at risk of missing the five percent threshold, is considered one of the surprise winners of the election. They received 8.77 percent. Meanwhile, both the FDP and BSW failed to reach the five percent threshold.
Key Drivers Behind the Results
The results reflect the deep divisions on key policy issues such as migration, defence and economy as well as the public’s discontent with the former government. Trump’s re-election in November 2024 and the uncertainty about the changing geopolitical landscape that came with it, defined the election campaign in its early months. Concerns about the continued commitment to Ukraine and economic anxieties due to threatened trade tariffs sparked national debates about the future of transatlantic relations and Europe’s financial independence.
However, after a series of violent attacks in Germany the topic of migration ultimately became the defining factor, overshadowing traditional campaign topics such as economic relief as well as climate and social policies. Even centrist parties, including the SPD and Greens, were forced to deviate from their favoured focus areas and adapt a rougher rhetoric. Especially the CDU/CSU positioned itself as the party for change
concerning migration policies, announcing a 180-degree shift from Angela Merkel’s more liberal legacy. The controversial move to rely on AfD votes to pass a stricter migration policy motion in parliament lead to nation-wide protests against the far-right but evidently did not deter voters. This signals a clear shift in voter priorities to 2021 and a willingness to overlook traditional political red lines in pursuit of change.
One party that likely profited from Merz’ controversial move is the Left. Especially young voters viewed the Left as the only party continuously pushing for a more liberal migration policy. This, combined with dissatisfaction over the SPD’s handling of social issues, housing, and the cost of living, may explain its surprisingly high result.
Coalition Possibilities
With five parties in the Bundestag now, only one two-party coalition option would have a majority: a Grand Coalition (GroKo) between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. All other coalition options are considered highly unlikely. While a coalition between CDU/CSU and the right-wing populist party AfD would hold a clear majority, Friedrich Merz has categorically ruled out this option. A Kenya coalition (CDU, SPD and Greens) would require negotiations involving the CDU/CSU and the SPD after coalition talks for a Grand Coalition would have failed, making this scenario improbable. A minority government would have limited capacity to govern, making it a last resort for the Union.
Timeline
Merz is eager to get the government up and running as quickly as possible, ideally by Easter. The CDU/CSU will field a small negotiation team to advance quickly.
Following the parliamentary elections, many ministries could undergo a radical reorganisation. According to reports, a new super Ministry for Infrastructure, combining transport, construction and energy grids may be planned. At the same time, the creation of a standalone Digital Ministry is being discussed. The Ministry of Economic Affairs will relinquish energy grids and climate protection in exchange for labour market policy. A new ‘super Ministry’ for Social Affairs (consisting of pensions, family and health) could be created. Climate protection would return to the Ministry of the Environment. Merging the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Development should be a bargaining chip for coalition partners.
What it Means for Germany and Europe
The incoming CDU-led government under Friedrich Merz is expected to prioritise stability and quick action, with a focus on limiting illegal migration, introducing an “active pension”, and lowering electricity costs. However, Merz will face immediate fiscal challenges, particularly due to the constitutional Schuldenbremse (debt brake) and mounting pressure for increased defence spending after 2028, when a special military fund runs out. While Merz has recently signalled openness to reforming the debt brake, achieving this now seems unlikely due to the absence of a secure two-thirds majority among the democratic parties.
Thirty-five years after the German reunification, the election results highlight the distinct divide between eastern and western German states. The AfD became the strongest party in all Eastern federal states, except Berlin, which was won by the Left. This calls for greater efforts to equalise the standards of living, salaries and employment opportunities in the “new federal states”.
In Europe, Merz aims to restore Germany’s leadership role after Scholz’s term, emphasising a stronger, more coherent voice in EU policymaking. He supports further integration in energy, telecoms, defence, and capital markets but firmly opposes permanent joint EU debt. Relations with the EU Commission may be pragmatic despite personal tensions, while Merz also aims to repair ties with France and Poland and deepen cooperation with the UK.
On foreign policy, Merz promises continued support for Ukraine, advocating for closer coordination with the US while also proposing a European “contact group” (with France, UK and Poland) to lead peace efforts independently if necessary. His government will likely try to balance fiscal caution with pragmatic Europeanism, seeking efficiency in defence and industrial policy while resisting deeper fiscal integration within the EU.
Conclusion
Germany has shifted to the right, with parties on the conservative side of the political spectrum gaining a combined 15 percent. The next government is expected to fundamentally shift the focus of German politics, with a strong focus on stricter security and migration policies.
Merz and his new government will face significant challenges amidst the changing geopolitical landscape, foreign policy threats, and apparent domestic divisions. Internationally, the shifting global order, complicated transatlantic relations under a second Trump presidency, and the ongoing war in Ukraine will require Germany to assert its leadership role and position Europe as a unified voice on the global stage. On a domestic level, the new government must first and foremost address the deepening political divide within the country. Major challenges will, amongst others, include balancing fiscal caution with proactive foreign policy and defense spending as well as reconciling demands for stricter migration controls with Germany’s democratic values. The decisions made in the coming months will have long-lasting implications for both Germany’s political direction and its role on the world stage.