Blog by Matej Banovec, EU Political Consultant for Energy, Climate and Industry.
Background
Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine shook the geopolitical foundations of Europe, the European Union took a decisive step toward cutting its energy ties with Moscow. On May 6, 2025, the European Commission unveiled the REPowerEU Roadmap, an ambitious blueprint to completely phase out imports of Russian gas, oil, and nuclear fuel. This move marks the culmination of efforts initiated with the REPowerEU Plan in 2022 and is a response to lingering concerns about Europe’s energy security and geopolitical vulnerability.
Despite a significant overall reduction, while Russian gas imports fell from 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to 52 bcm in 2024 – the Commission noted a rebound in gas imports last year, highlighting the fragility of Europe’s energy independence. Recognising Russia’s continued weaponisation of energy, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that “energy that comes to our continent should not pay for a war of aggression against Ukraine.” The Roadmap can be seen as a component of an economic approach as well as a security strategy, aiming to accelerate the EU’s transition to clean energy while safeguarding energy supply and affordability across all Member States.
What is in the REPowerEU Roadmap?
The Roadmap outlines a phased and coordinated withdrawal from Russian energy imports, ensuring that energy security and market stability remain intact throughout the transition. Key measures include:
- Gas Phase-Out:
- Ban on new contracts and existing spot contracts for Russian gas by end-2025.
- Complete phase-out of Russian gas under long-term contracts by end-2027.
- Enhanced transparency and traceability of Russian gas flows across EU markets.
- Member States to submit national phase-out plans by the end of 2025.
- Oil Phase-Out:
- Replacement of remaining Russian oil imports in Slovakia and Hungary by 2027.
- Continued action to dismantle Russia’s “shadow fleet” circumventing sanctions.
- Nuclear Phase-Out:
- Restrictions on new contracts for enriched uranium and nuclear materials from Russia.
- Support for alternative nuclear fuel development, especially for VVER reactors in five Member States.
- Proposal for the European Radioisotopes Valley Initiative (ERVI) to secure medical radioisotope supply.
The Roadmap also aligns with broader EU initiatives such as the Clean Industrial Deal, the Competitiveness Compass, and the Affordable Energy Action Plan, reinforcing the EU’s goals of energy sovereignty and climate neutrality.
Objectives and Strategic Rationale
The primary objectives of the Roadmap are to:
- End EU dependence on Russian energy imports, eliminating a key source of geopolitical leverage for Moscow.
- Strengthen EU energy security by ensuring uninterrupted and diversified supply from reliable partners.
- Accelerate the clean energy transition by replacing fossil fuels with renewable and low-carbon alternatives.
- Support industrial competitiveness, mitigating price shocks and enhancing regulatory certainty for businesses.
This strategy is underpinned by expectations regarding market trends: global LNG capacity is expected to surge by 200 bcm by 2028, while EU gas demand is forecast to reduce by 40–50 bcm by 2027, ensuring that sufficient alternatives will be available.
Institutional comments and stakeholder reactions
European Commission and European
- Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed that Europe must “cut off energy ties with an unreliable supplier” and linked the move to broader geopolitical and economic security.
- Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President for a Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, emphasised that Putin’s energy blackmail reinforces the urgency of a renewable-based transition.
- Dan Jørgensen, Commissioner for Energy and Housing, underscored the dual benefit of energy independence and affordable, clean domestic energy production.
- The Greens/EFA Group also strongly endorsed the roadmap, highlighting its alignment with their long-standing calls to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels. MEP Ville Niinistö stressed that energy independence must not mean substituting one autocratic supplier for another, and called for a focus on renewables, energy savings, and grid investments.
Other political groups have not shared any press releases on the subject at the time of publication.
Industry
- The European Biogas Association (EBA) strongly supported the roadmap, viewing it as a major opportunity to scale up biogas production and integration into the EU energy mix. CEO Harmen Dekker stated that renewable gases will be “indispensable” to Europe’s energy future and urged the European Commission to create concrete legislative targets and frameworks to support the sector’s growth.
Environmental and Civil Society Organisations
Several environmental NGOs responded with cautious approval, welcoming the roadmap’s ambition while critiquing its reliance on alternative fossil fuel sources:
- The European Environmental Bureau (EEB) acknowledged the roadmap’s intent and the EU’s progress, but strongly criticized the increased import of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a counterproductive move. The EEB called instead for a full-scale investment in wind and solar, warning that LNG infrastructure risks locking in future volatility.
- Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe similarly praised the roadmap’s legally binding measures, but noted its shortcomings. They argued that the EU should prioritize demand-side solutions such as insulation, electrification, and renewables over supply diversification. They added that while restrictions on Russian nuclear materials are welcome, deeper reductions in nuclear power are needed to achieve real energy independence.
Central and Eastern Europe
- Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said the plan is “absolutely unacceptable” for his country and that his government was ready to veto it. He believed the move would be harmful for Slovakia and the entire EU as it would lead to higher energy prices. Slovakia has a gas delivery deal with Russia that expires in 2034, and Fico said that he would seek compensation for damages if the plan proceeds. Similar comments have been made by the Hungarian government.
- It is also relevant to note that previous proposals to block imports of Russian LNG, which have been increasing year-on-year, have not gained ground in the Council. There have also been comments made from the Italian and incoming German governments about being open to reintroducing gas pipeline flows from Russia in case there is a political rapprochement in the future.
Challenges and Considerations
While the roadmap’s goals are widely supported, several challenges loom:
- Infrastructure Readiness: Expansion of LNG terminals and pipeline capacities are essential to enable diversification. A particular challenge will be the landlocked countries of Central and Eastern Europe that have historically relied exclusively on Russia for gas supplies.
- Global Market Dynamics: A surge in LNG demand could strain global markets, though the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects new capacity to offset this risk.
- Legal Hurdles: Existing long-term contracts pose legal and financial complexities, requiring careful negotiation and phased enforcement to avoid litigation.
- Nuclear Diversification: Replacing Russian nuclear fuel, especially for VVER reactors, will present considerable regulatory and practical challenges that may be difficult to resolve in a relatively short time period.
What’s Next?
The European Commission will present a suite of legislative proposals next month to operationalise the Roadmap’s measures. Member States are expected to:
- Submit their national phase-out plans for gas, oil, and nuclear imports by the end of 2025.
- Collaborate in regional and EU-wide coordination groups to monitor progress and troubleshoot challenges.
Additional milestones include:
2027: Full ban on Russian gas under long-term contracts; completion of national oil phase-out plans.
June 2025: Legislative package to enhance gas transparency and traceability.
End of 2025: Ban on new Russian gas contracts and existing spot contracts.
2026-2027: Infrastructure expansions (e.g., Trans Adriatic Pipeline boost; Neptun Deep gas field launch).
What’s Next?
The REPowerEU Roadmap sets out a strategically significant framework for the European Union to consolidate its energy independence while aligning with longer-term decarbonisation goals. Its phased approach reflects a careful balancing act between geopolitical imperatives, economic resilience, and technical feasibility. By targeting a complete cessation of Russian energy imports by 2027, the Roadmap aims to reduce external vulnerabilities while supporting structural shifts in the energy market.
However, successful implementation will depend on the EU’s ability to manage complex challenges—ranging from legal constraints tied to long-term contracts, to infrastructure bottlenecks in Central and Eastern Europe, and the risks of substituting one dependency for another. The coming months will be crucial in assessing whether this policy can transition from ambition to coordinated, measurable outcomes.